Perak to go back to Pakatan Rakyat (or a loose coalition of DAP, PRK, PAS)

That's what I predict but i know it can go many ways and that the possibility of this happening is not very compelling but if it does, it'll also take time so for now, its really less than a prediction but it could happen.

RPK has very comprehensively articulated the situation so im not gonna bother writing...

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But the problem does not end here. What happens to the corruption charges against those two ‘independent’ State Assemblymen? Will the charges now be dropped? If the charges are dropped then it would become too obvious. But if the charges remain and they face trial, then another problem crops up.

First would be what surfaces in the trial. If the trial reveals they were fixed up, then Barisan Nasional would look bad. But if they were not fixed up and really are guilty of corruption, Barisan Nasional would also look bad. Both ways Barisan Nasional would look bad.

And if they are found guilty because they really are guilty then there will be two more by-elections in Perak, which the opposition will surely win. And we will end up with 30 opposition seats against only 29 from Barisan Nasional.

This means the Perak government will again change hands like it did last week, but this time from Barisan Nasional to a loose coalition of DAP, PKR and PAS.

Then we have the problem of Hee. She is expected to resign due to the pressure she is facing. This means yet another seat will fall vacant and yet another by-election will be held.Maybe over the 11 months since 8 March 2008, the loose coalition of DAP, PKR and PAS was running Perak with uncertainty about its future.

But the new Barisan Nasional government of Perak is not on any more solid ground than the previous government. It too faces the possibility of being driven out of office.